History was made on July 21 when President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race.
Biden is the first sitting president since Lyndon B. Johnson announced in 1968 that he would not seek re-election, when Johnson dropped out after a poor showing in the New Hampshire Democratic primary, and the first individual in presidential history to decline to run after winning the primary; Biden won nearly 90% of the delegates in the 2024 primary.
With Biden’s withdrawal, well past the primaries, Vice President Kamala Harris was named the party’s preferred candidate for the November election. On July 23, Harris was officially backed by enough delegates to become the nominee. She will face the Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump, in November, and his running mate Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio).
Biden’s withdrawal was demanded by many Democrats after a poor showing in a June debate by the president against Trump. Biden tried to stay in the race, his supporters pointing to a history of the incumbent president performing poorly in the first debate, but too few people were convinced.
“This wasn’t a case of somebody having an off night,” Michael Dawidziak, founder of Strategic Planning Systems Inc. and political consultant, told the Press. “It was a case of, everybody was watching to see if their fears would be allayed. And they weren’t. The debates are always style over substance.”
For Harris, the first woman to be vice president, becoming the nominee breathed life into the Democratic Party’s hopes to hold on to the White House in November: She raised over $81 million within 24 hours of Biden’s withdrawal, and more has continued to pour in.
But it’s not just national politics that are affected by the change at the top of the Democratic ticket. Down-ballot races, according to former New York Assemblyman Jerry Kremer, across the nation will now have to consider if they want – or don’t want – to be associated with Harris, which could differ from their previous strategy with Biden on the ticket.
“Candidates for local office in a year like this one cannot avoid having national issues overshadow their campaigns,” Kremer told the Press. “Whether Kamala Harris is a plus or a minus, is anybody’s guess, as is the case with Donald Trump. This year is especially tricky, because so many people already have a fixed opinion about some of the two leading candidates, which has to impact the decisions when they get in the voting booth.”
It’s something Kremer, who served 13 terms in Albany, can personally relate to. When running for re-election in 1972 as a Democrat he felt compelled to distance himself from the Democratic nominee for president, South Dakota Sen. George McGovern, who only managed to win Massachusetts and Washington, D.C. in a landslide loss to Republican nominee Richard Nixon. Kremer felt compelled to do the same when Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis ran in 1988, losing a landslide election to then-Vice President George H.W. Bush.
“Candidates have to find a way at that critical point in the election where they separate themselves from the top of the ticket if they think they have to,” Kremer said.
Long Island has four congressional seats, which are up for election this year. Three of them are currently held by Republicans – though, technically, all four were won by Republicans in 2022, but one of those Republicans was the disgraced George Santos, who was expelled from the House of Representatives in December. A special election followed, and Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) defeated Nassau County Legislator Mazi Pilip (R-Great Neck) for the seat.
“It’s a presidential year where Democratic turnout normally comes out,” Dawidziak said. “Had Biden still been the nominee, with that lack of confidence and that lack of enthusiasm for Biden, they have leveled the playing field a little bit on turnout with Harris. She should have that Democratic vote somewhat energized.”
New York’s 1st Congressional District
Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Rocky Point) won election to this seat in 2022, replacing Lee Zeldin, who had gone on to challenge Kathy Hochul in the gubernatorial race.
“After 50 years of service and a very challenging last few years that have clearly taken a toll on him mentally and physically, it’s heartening to see that President Biden and his family are finally acknowledging his prolonged mental decline,” LaLota said. “Prioritizing his health is essential, and I am glad they are taking steps in this direction.”
LaLota, a member of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus, is running against former CNN anchor John Avlon (D-Sag Harbor).
“The contrast between the dynamic former prosecutor and the aging convicted criminal at the top of our respective tickets could not be clearer,” Avlon said. “Nick Lalota backs the criminal. I’m backing the prosecutor.”
According to the Cook Political Report, which has certain races categorized as competitive, while close enough to be rated, the district is likely going to remain Republican. Cook has LaLota ahead by four points – and both Kremer and Dawidziak feel it’s LaLota’s race to lose.
Trump won Suffolk County by a small margin in 2020.
New York’s 2nd Congressional District
Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-Sayville) replaced the long-serving Rep. Peter King (R-Seaford) in this district in 2021.
“President Biden was right to drop out of the race,” Garbarino wrote on X. “But no matter who is leading their ticket, the Democrats will have to answer for their policies which have left us with rampant inflation, more crime, and totally unsecured borders.”
Garbarino is facing off against newcomer Rob Lubin.
“Thank you, @POTUS, for your 50 years of service to the American people as you conclude your term,” Lubin wrote on X. “As the youngest nominee from New York, I am honored to be part of the next generation building upon your accomplishments.”
The district is not rated by the Cook Political Report as competitive, and both Kremer and Dawidziak don’t see either party putting significant funds into it, as Garbarino should win.
New York’s 3rd Congressional District
What was, for over a year, the most discussed congressional district in perhaps the whole country, has receded back to business as usual.
George Santos won election to this seat by a shockingly wide margin in 2022, defeating Democratic opponent Robert Zimmerman. It was a race to replace Suozzi, who had unsuccessfully challenged Hochul in the Democratic primary for governor. But the district fell into turmoil when it was revealed that Santos had lied about pretty much everything about his life – from his heritage and education to his employment history and more.
Santos was eventually indicted on 23 federal counts of fraud, and was expelled from the House of Representatives in December 2023. Suozzi won his seat back in the aforementioned special election.
“My heartfelt thanks to President Biden for his years of accomplishments,” Suozzi said. “I will continue working with anyone of good faith who genuinely wants to fix the border, to reduce the cost of living, and to help heal the divide in our nation.”
Suozzi is running for re-election against former Assemblyman Michael LiPetri (R-Farmingdale).
LiPetri did not directly comment on Biden dropping out. However, he criticized Suozzi’s praise of Biden.
“Accomplishments? Look around, man,” LiPetri wrote on X. “The Biden-Harris White House has been a disaster for residents of NY03.”
This race is also not rated by the Cook Political Report, and according to Kremer and Dawidziak, should go to Suozzi.
New York’s 4th Congressional District
This is the race that could get interesting on Long Island. It features a rematch between incumbent Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park) and former Town of Hempstead Supervisor Laura Gillen (D-Rockville Centre).
D’Esposito took Biden’s withdrawal from the race a step further.
“It is clear to all Americans that President Biden is in a state of cognitive decline, and Biden’s decision to end his candidacy is tied directly to that troubling fact. If President Biden, his campaign team, and Democrats writ large believe Biden is unable to engage in a re-election campaign given his failing health, it begs the question as to whether Biden can carry out his presidential duties through the end of his term,” said D’Esposito. “For the good of the country, President Biden should resign as president.”
D’Esposito’s win in 2022 was part of Long Island’s red wave, but it was the narrowest of all four congressional races. He defeated Gillen by a margin of 52% to 48%.
“President Biden has worked for decades reaching across the aisle to serve the American people,” Gillen said. “I wish him the best and thank him for his selflessness and his service.”
The race is rated as a true tossup by the Cook Political Report. It was one of the seats Democrats lost nationwide in 2022, as the seat had been held by former Rep. Kathleen Rice (D-Garden City).
“The Democrats are trying to recapture at least four of those seats, and the Republicans are going to spend a fortune to try to hold on to them,” Kremer said.
It’s a district that Biden won handily in 2020, as he won all of Nassau that year. According to Dawidziak, D’Esposito benefitted from running in a non-presidential year.
“Even just normal Democratic turnout in a presidential year would have made her [Gillen] the winner two years ago,” Dawidziak said. “If turnout in that district hovers around across the board around 70% or so, then that’s going to make that race very competitive. That’s the one, I think, the Harris candidacy has the most effect on.”
– With Julie Prisco and Timothy Bolger
